By: Abigail Mago, Licensed Associate Broker

I think it’s safe to say that 2020 has been a wild year for everyone. Despite the economic chaos brought on by the pandemic, the Fire Island real estate market has flourished this year. While we won’t have a complete data set to analyze the full year’s performance until roughly February 2021, recorded sales so far indicate strong market growth in 2020. The average recorded sale price for all of Fire Island so far this year is $909,881. That’s a 10.9% increase from 2019’s average sale price of $820,381, and just above the highest average sale price of all-time which was $907,042 in 2018. While the average sale price is a very useful metric, it can be heavily skewed by any outliers, so it is also helpful to look at the median sale price. While Fire Island’s 2019 median sale price was $750,000, 2020’s median so far is $800,000, which represents a 6.7% increase.

There are a number of factors at play that are contributing to the strength of the market. Covid-19 has caused a large demand spike from city dwellers who are looking to escape to less dense places. Even though Fire Island is not traditionally thought of as a year-round destination, we are seeing many families still utilizing their homes late into the Fall season and planning to stay through the Winter months. Year-round usability was not previously a request made by many buyers, but in the current climate that has become a sought-after amenity.

Another major factor is that with the stock market back near all-time highs, many buyers are looking to real estate as an alternative home for their capital. Those with excess cash are weary of investing their money in what could be the top of the equities market, and many who are already invested have decided to cash out some of their stock portfolios, lock in their gains, and put that money into real estate. As an asset you can enjoy, beach houses are at the top of many savvy investors’ wish lists.

The final major factor at play is obscenely low interest rates. With mortgage rates currently in the mid 2’s, it almost feels as though the bank is paying you to buy a beach house. All of these factors acting at once are creating the perfect storm for an extremely strong market. With such robust buyer activity, inventory is rapidly shrinking, and I believe we are poised for another price jump.

Prepared By: Abigail Medvin Mago, Licensed Associate Broker

February 28, 2020

ISLAND WIDE DATA

Coming off of 2018’s record performance in terms of average and median sale prices, the 2019 Fire Island real estate market saw a moderate slow down. While the island wide average and median sale prices decreased year over year, transaction volume was up 6% year over year, suggesting continued market strength despite the average and median price declines. The average sale price island wide declined from 2018’s all-time high of $907,042 to $804,441 in 2019, representing an 11% year over year decline. To provide some historical context, the average sale price over the last 14 years has been $778,050, which is 3% lower than 2019’s average.

While the average sale price did decrease from 2018 to 2019, the number of homes sold increased by 9%. 145 Fire Island homes were sold in 2019, as compared to 133 in 2018. Over the last 14 years, on average 105 homes have changed hands in a given year. With 145 transactions in 2019, that represents transaction volume of 38% greater than average. Since I began data collection in 2006, only 2016 and 2017 saw a larger number of transactions than 2019, with 157 and 147 sales taking place, respectively.

The lowest priced Fire Island property sold in 2019 was $150,000, as compared to 2018’s lowest priced sale of $100,000. The most expensive property sold in 2019 traded for $2,200,000, which is 42% lower than the most expensive sale closed in 2018 of $3,800,000, and 15% lower than the 14-year average high price paid of $2,596,643. While it should be noted that 2018’s $3,800,000 sale was of a commercial property, not a residence, the high end of the market was significantly less active in 2019 than is commonly seen, with only 6 sales occurring above the $1.5M mark, and only 2 of which breaking the $2M mark. By comparison, in 2018 15 sales occurring at or above the $1.5 million mark and 7 sales occurring at or above the $2 million mark.

An additional indicator of stronger market activity in the middle segment rather than the high end can be seen when comparing the average and median sales prices. The median sale price in 2019 was $750,000, a 2% year over year decrease from 2018’s median sale price of $765,000. 2019’s average sale price was 7% higher than its median sale price, while 2018’s average sale price was 16% higher than its median sale price. In 2017, a year which also saw unusually little activity at the high end of the market, the average sale price was only 6% higher than the median sale price. The higher the average sale price relative to the median sale price, the greater the activity at the high end of the market, causing the average to skew upwards. The graph below compares the average and median sale prices from 2016 – 2019.

To put the 2019 market data into perspective, it is helpful to look at sales figures relative to the entire period of data collection in addition to comparing to the previous year’s performance.

PRICE SEGMENT ANALYSIS

The 2019 market was largely driven by the middle segment of the market, with more than a third of the year’s total sales occurring in the $750,000 - $1,000,000 price bracket. Because the total market size is relatively small, outlier high end sales can have a relatively large influence on the average sale prices, making the average metric not the best indicator of market performance. When breaking down each year’s sales into price segments, some interesting trends can be observed. The chart below shows sale count by year, broken down by $500,000 sale price increments.

The proportion of home sales under $500,000 has been steadily decreasing since 2013 when it topped out at 42% after Hurricane Sandy. In 2019, only 12% of homes sold at a price below $500,0000. Since 2006, the under $500k price segment has represented, on average, 24% of sales. The vast majority of 2019 home sales fell in the $500,000 - $1 million price segment, representing 72% of sales, as compared to 62% in 2018 and an average proportion of 58%. 12% of homes sold were between $1 million and $1.5 million, which was the same in 2018, and slightly above the average proportion of 11% of sales. 3% of 2019 sales were between $1.5M and $2M, which is just under the typical average of 4%. Only 1% of sales were in the $2M - $2.5M price segment, whereas typically 2% of sales fall into that segment.

TOWN BY TOWN ANALYSIS

In addition to looking at the island’s overall market performance, it is useful to examine the data on a town by town basis.

ATLANTIQUE

Atlantique saw no sales activity in 2019. A small community, Atlantique usually sees 1 sale per year. The average sale price over the past 12 years in Atlantique is $589,323.

CHERRY GROVE

Cherry Grove saw weaker market performance in 2019, with 10 homes trading, as compared to 16 homes in 2018 and a historical average of 13 per year. The average Cherry Grove sale price in 2019 was $485,000, which was down 23% from $628,933 in 2018, and down 9% from the 13-year average sale price of $535,573. The least expensive Cherry Grove property to trade in 2019 was $150,000, down 55% from 2018’s lowest price of $335,000.

CORNEILLE ESTATES

Corneille Estates saw a dramatic increase in activity in 2019, with 5 homes trading, whereas 2 sales per year is average for the community. While number of transactions was up 150%, the average sale price declined significantly year over year. The 2019 average sale price was $846,950 which is 26% lower than 2018’s average sale price of $1,142,000, but still 14% higher than the last 14 year’s average sale price of $739,890. 2019’s lowest price Corneille Estates sale of $644,200 was 36% lower than 2018’s lowest price sale of $999,000. The highest price paid for a Corneille Estates home in 2019 was $983,000, down 24% from 2018’s high price of $1,285,000, but still 24% higher than the 14-year average high price of $794,654.

DAVIS PARK

Ten sales took place in Davis Park in 2019, which was down from 2018’s record high of 16, but still 67% higher than the average year which sees only 6 sales. The average sale price dipped by 7% from $588,725 in 2018 to $546,980 in 2019, but was still 5% higher than an average year. The highest price paid for a home in Davis Park in 2019 was $999,000 which was an 18% decrease over the previous year, but still 28% higher than the average highest price paid in the last 14 years.

DUNEWOOD

Dunewood had 2 home sales in 2019, which is typical for the community, but down from 3 sales in 2018. The average sale price in 2019 was $1,245,000 which is 26% lower than 2018’s average sale price of $1,678,335, but still 42% higher than the 14-year average of $879,685. The highest price paid for a home in Dunewood in 2019 was $1,550,000 which is 39% higher than the 14-year average high price paid of $1,116,667.

FAIR HARBOR

Fair Harbor had 13 sales in 2019, which is down slightly from 2018’s 14 sales but still 44% higher than the 14-year average of 9 sales per year. The average sale price was down 22% year over year, to $724,869 in 2019 from $926,946 in 2018, but still 6% above the historical average sale price of $682,318. The highest price paid in Fair Harbor in 2019 was $1,300,000, which is 35% lower than the highest price paid in 2018 but still 15% higher than the highest price paid in an average year. The lowest price paid in Fair Harbor in 2019 of $510,000 is 3% lower than the lowest price paid in Fair Harbor in 2018 of $525,000.

FIRE ISLAND PINES

The Pines saw 25 sales in 2019, down from 29 homes sold in 2018. An average year sees 20 Pines homes trade hands. The average sale price declined 15% from $1,008,792 in 2018 to $858,202 in 2019, which is 14% lower than the historical average of $1,002,166. The highest price paid in the Pines in 2019 was $2,200,000, which was tied with a sale in Ocean Bay Park for the most expensive home sale on the island in 2019. This figure is down from $2,485,018 in 2018, and 3% less than the 14-year average high sale price of $2,257,894.

KISMET

Kismet saw market improvement from 2018 to 2019 with 7 home sales in 2019 as compared to 4 in 2018. The historic average for the community is 5 sales per year. The average sale price also increased by 3%, from $671,250 in 2018 to $688,500 in 2019. The lowest price paid for a Kismet home was 81% higher in 2019 than in 2018, and 39% higher than in an average year. The highest price paid in Kismet in 2019 was $900,000 which is a 10% decline from 2018’s high price paid of $995,000.

LONELYVILLE

Lonelyville saw no market activity in 2019, with no homes trading hands. A small community, on average over the last 14 years, only 1 home sells per year. Lonelyville’s 14-year average sale price is $748,198.

OCEAN BAY PARK

Ocean Bay Park saw a dramatic increase in transaction volume, with 19 sales taking place in 2019, as compared to 10 in 2018, and 8 in a typical year. While sale count was way up, the average sale price did decline by 15% from 2018’s record high of $973,745 to $827,907 in 2019. Despite the year over year drop, 2019’s average sale price is still 46% above the average sale price over the last 14 years, which is $565,194. The lowest price paid for an Ocean Bay Park home in 2019 was $500,000, down 9% from 2018’s lowest price paid of $550,000, but still 76% higher than the average lowest price paid over the last 14 years of $283,607. The highest price paid for a home in Ocean Bay Park in 2019 was $2,200,000 which, tied with another $2.2M sale in the Fire Island Pines, was the priciest sale of the year, island-wide, as well as the highest price paid in Ocean Bay Park to date. This is 10% higher than 2018’s high price paid of $2,000,000, (which was the previous record high sale for Ocean Bay Park) and 110% higher than the 14-year average high price paid of $1,046,714.

OCEAN BEACH

Ocean Beach transaction volume was strong in 2019 with 26 homes trading, up 24% from 21 sales in 2018. Over the last 14 years, an average of 21 homes change hands in a given year, making 2019’s sale count 25% greater than is typical. While sale count was up 24% year over year, the average sale price declined by 9%, from $894,230 in 2018 to $809,908 in 2019, which is 18% higher than the historical average sale price of $686,510. The highest price paid in Ocean Beach in 2019 was $1,730,000, which is a record for residential property in Ocean Beach. In 2018, the most expensive property to sell was a $3,800,000 commercial property. The highest price paid for an Ocean Beach residence in 2018 was $1,185,000, representing a 46% year over year increase in the highest price paid for a residence. The lowest price paid for an Ocean Beach home in 2019 was $375,000, down 3% from 2018’s low price of $385,000.

ROBBINS REST

After no home sales in 2018, one home changed hands in Robbins Rest in 2019 which is typical for the small community. 2019’s average sale price was $985,000, up 26% from the historic average sale price of $782,204.

SALTAIRE

Coming off of an extremely weak year in 2018, the Saltaire market improved both in terms of sale count and average sale price. Sale count was up 150% year over year, from 2 sales in 2018 to 5 in 2019. Traditionally considered one of the most desirable communities on Fire Island, Saltaire usually sees 10 homes trade a year with some of the highest price points island wide. The average sale price was up 37% from $775,250 in 2018 to $1,065,000 in 2019.

The lowest price paid for a Saltaire property in 2019 was $500,000, which was 22% lower than the 2018 low price paid of $645,000, and 11% higher than the 14-year average low price. The highest price paid was up 55% from only $905,500 in 2018 to $1,400,000 in 2019, which is 24% below the 14-year average high price paid of $1,838,500.

SEAVIEW

17 homes changed hands in Seaview in 2019, which is a 55% increase over 2018’s 11 sales and 70% more than the 14-year average sale count of 10. Despite the spike in transaction volume, the average sale price declined by 12% from $1,081,591 in 2018 to $947,309 in 2019, which is 9% below the 14-year historical average of $1,037,795.

The lowest price paid in Seaview in 2019 was $531,248 which is 26% less than 2018’s low price of $715,000, and 6% below the historical average low price of $564,196. The highest price paid in Seaview in 2019 was $1,400,000, down 41% from 2018’s high price of $2,372,500. The 14-year average high price paid in Seaview is $1,955,464, which is 28% higher than 2019’s high price paid.

SUMMER CLUB

Sales count doubled in the Summer Club from 2 sales in 2018 to 4 sales in 2019. An average year sees 3 homes change hands in the small community. 2019’s average Summer Club sale price was $849,875, which is a 24% decline from 2018’s average sale price of $1,123,750, but 9% higher than the historical average sale price of $779,219. The lowest price paid in the Summer Club in 2019 was $550,000 as compared to $1,100,000, in 2018, although it should be noted that the 2019 sale was of vacant land. The highest price paid was up by 13% to $1,300,000, which is 31% higher than the 14-year average high price paid of $995,722.

WATER ISLAND

Only one home sold in Water Island in 2019, for a sale price of $1,300,000. 2018 also saw only one home sale in Water Island, at a price point of $1,500,000, representing a 13% year over year decrease, and a 3% premium over the 14-year average sales price of $1,267,042.

CONCLUSION

With both the average and median sale prices reaching record levels in 2018, the Fire Island real estate market saw prices leveling off in 2019. However, the increased number of transactions is indicative of the continued streak of strong performance that we’ve been experiencing since 2016. The market was largely driven by activity in the $750,000 - $1 million price point, which is a departure from 2018’s market dynamics being driven principally by the high end.

Because the Fire Island real estate market does not function like a traditional real estate market with a centralized multiple listing service, reliable market data is not readily available to the public. Our annual market reports are published in an effort to address that. Both buyers and sellers are served by being fully informed about the market in which they are considering transacting. Please do not hesitate to contact me at abigail@fireislandrealestate.com if I can provide any further information, or if I can be of help to you in the sale or purchase of your Fire Island home.

METHODOLOGY

Please note that all information herein is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. The information is sourced from public real estate transaction records. Sales data reporting has a lag of approximately 90 days. Due to this lag, there may be some outstanding sales that closed late in 2019 but have not yet been reported and are therefore not reflected in this report. All historic data refers to the period between 2006 and 2019.

Prepared by:

Abigail Mago, Licensed Associate Broker

Abigail@fireislandrealestate.com

Island Wide Data

The strong market performance we’ve been experiencing over the last few years has continued through 2018. In fact, 2018 was a record year for the Fire Island real estate market, both in terms of the average and median sale prices. The average island wide sale price reached an all-time high of $907,042. This represents a 14% year over year increase from 2017’s average sale price of $797,947. This is the first time the average sale price has broken the $900,000 mark since I began data collection in 2006. To provide some historical context, the average sale price over the last 13 years has been $776,401, which is 17% lower than 2018’s average.

While the average sale price was a record high, the number of homes sold did decline by 10% from 2017 to 2018. 133 Fire Island homes were sold in 2018, as compared to 147 in 2017. Even though the volume of sales did decline year over year, 2018’s 133 sales is still 30% higher than the number of homes sold in a typical year, which, over the last 13 years, has averaged 102 sales per year.

The lowest priced Fire Island property sold in 2018 was $100,000, as compared to 2017’s lowest priced sale of $50,000. The most expensive property sold in 2018 traded for $3,800,000, which is 105% higher than the most expensive sale closed in 2017 of $1,850,000, and 45% higher than the 13-year average high price paid of $2,627,154. While it should be noted that the $3,800,000 sale was of a commercial property, not a residence, the high end of the market was significantly more active in 2018 than it was in 2017, with 15 sales occurring at or above the $1.5 million mark and 7 sales occurring at or above the $2 million mark. In 2017, only 9 homes traded at or above the $1.5 million mark, topping out at a high price of $1,850,000.

The median sale price in 2018 was $765,000, a 2% year over year increase from 2017’s median sale price of $750,000. Stronger market activity in the higher priced segments is also evident in the fact that the average sale price in 2018 was 16% higher than the median sale price. In 2017, the average was only 6% higher than the median sale price. The higher the average sale price relative to the median sale price, the greater the activity at the high end of the market, causing the average to skew upwards. The graph below compares the average and median sale prices from 2016 – 2018.

To put the 2018 market data into perspective, it is helpful to look at sales figures relative to the entire period of data collection in addition to comparing to the previous year’s performance.

TOWN BY TOWN ANALYSIS

In addition to looking at the island’s overall market performance, it is useful to examine the data on a town by town basis.

ATLANTIQUE

Atlantique saw no sales activity in 2018. A small community, Atlantique usually sees 1 sale per year. The average sale price over the past 12 years in Atlantique is $589,323.

CHERRY GROVE

Cherry Grove saw strong market performance in 2018, with 15 homes trading, as compared to 12 homes in 2017 and a historical average of 13 per year. The average sale price in 2018 was $628,933, which was up 18% from $531,750 in 2017, and up 16% from the 13-year average sale price of $544,342. The least expensive Cherry Grove property to trade in 2018 was $335,000, up 29% from 2017’s lowest price of $260,000.

CORNEILLE ESTATES

Two homes sold in Corneille Estates in 2018, as was the case in 2017. 2 sales per year is average for the community. The 2018 average sale price was $1,142,000 which is 36% higher than 2017’s average sale price and 56% higher than the last 13 year’s average sale price of $734,163. 2018’s lowest price Corneille Estates sale of $999,000 was 22% higher than 2017’s lowest price sale of $820,000. The highest price paid for a Corneille Estates home in 2018 was $1,285,000, up 49% from 2017’s high price of $860,000 and up 65% from the 13-year average high price of $778,958.

DAVIS PARK

Sales transaction volume in Davis Park was over 3 times a typical year in 2018 with 16 sales taking place, as compared to the historical average of 5 sales per year. Sale count was up 78% from 2017, which was also a strong year with 9 homes trading. The average sale price rose by 3% from $569,137 in 2017 to $588,725 in 2018, and was 14% higher than an average year. The highest price paid for a home in Davis Park in 2018 was $1,225,000 which was a 40% increase over the previous year, and 60% higher than the average highest price paid in the last 13 years.

DUNEWOOD

After no sales activity in Dunewood in 2017, 2018 saw strong market activity with 3 sales. A small community, Dunewood typically sees only one home sale per year. The average sale price in 2018 was $1,678,335, which is 95% higher than the 13-year average of $859,438. The highest price paid for a home in Dunewood in 2018 was $2,917,506, which is 175% higher than the 13-year average high price paid of $1,062,501.

FAIR HARBOR

Fair Harbor had another strong year with 14 sales in both 2018 and 2017, which is 56% higher than the 13-year average of 9 sales per year. The average sale price was up 16% year over year, to $926,946 in 2018 from $795,709 in 2017. This is a 37% increase over the historical average sale price of $679,045. The highest price paid in Fair Harbor in 2018 was $2,000,000, which is 14% higher than the highest price paid in 2017 and 79% higher than the highest price paid in an average year. The lowest price paid in Fair Harbor in 2018 of $525,000 is 5% lower than the lowest price paid in Fair Harbor in 2017 of $550,000.

FIRE ISLAND PINES

The Pines market remained remarkably steady from 2017 to 2018, with 29 homes trading hands in both years and the average sale price dipping by .3% from $1,011,961 in 2017 to $1,008,792 in 2018. The average 2018 sale price was .4% shy of the 13-year average sale price of $1,013,188. The highest price paid in the Pines in 2018 was $2,485,018, up 34% from 2017’s high price of $1,850,000 and up 10% from the 13-year average high sale price of $2,262,348. The lowest price paid in the Pines in 2017 was $412,754, which is 25% lower than the lowest price paid in 2017 of $550,000.

KISMET

Kismet is one of the only Fire Island towns where the market declined from 2017 to 2018, with a 3% year over year decline in average sale price and a 43% decline in the number of sales, from 7 in 2017 to only 4 in 2018, which is 20% less than an average year. The average sale price decreased from $694,857 in 2017 to $671,250 in 2018. The lowest price paid for a Kismet home was 34% lower in 2018 than in 2017, and 21% lower than in an average year. The highest price paid in Kismet in 2018 was $995,000 which was 12% higher than 2017’s high price paid of $885,000.

LONELYVILLE

Lonelyville saw strong performance in 2018, with 3 homes selling, as compared to an average year which sees just one home sale. The average sale price was up 57%, as compared to the historical average sale price, as well as year over year, increasing from $751,667 in 2017 to $1,178,333 in 2018. The lowest price paid in Lonelyville was up 63% from $450,000 in 2017 to $735,000 in 2018. The highest price paid in Lonelyville was also up, increasing by 36% from $1,100,000 in 2017 to $1,500,000 in 2018, which is 68% higher than the 13-year average high price paid.

OCEAN BAY PARK

Ocean Bay Park saw dramatic price growth in 2018, with the average sale price increasing by 52% from $640,611 in 2017 to $973,745 in 2018. The average sale price in Ocean Bay Park over the last 13 years has been $544,985, which is 79% lower than 2018’s average. Sale count was up 11% year over year, with 10 homes trading in 2018, as compared to 9 in 2017. This represents 35% more sales than in an average year, which typically sees 7 sales occurring. The lowest price paid in Ocean Bay Park in 2018 was $550,000, as compared to $130,000 in 2017 which is a 323% increase year over year and a 106% increase over the 13-year average low price of $266,962. Fire Island Real Estate brokered the highest price Ocean Bay Park sale in 2018 of $2,000,000, which is the highest price ever paid in Ocean Bay Park, a 67% increase from 2017’s high price paid of $1,200,000, and 104% higher than the 13-year average high price paid of $982,182. In recent years, Ocean Bay Park has shed its reputation as a haven for share houses and group rentals and continues to transition towards luxury family homes and high-end rentals.

OCEAN BEACH

Coming off of record transaction volume of 39 sales in 2017, not surprisingly the number of Ocean Beach sales declined substantially year over year to 21 sales in 2018. This 46% decline can be viewed as a regression to the mean, with 21 sales per year being the average over the last 13 years.

While sale count decreased to be in line with a typical year, average sale price was up 14%, from $793,705 in 2017 to $908,516 in 2018, which is 33% higher than the historical average sale price of $681,952. The highest price paid in Ocean Beach in 2018 was $3,800,000 which is 137% more than 2017’s high price paid of $1,606,000. This sale was a commercial property, not a residence. The highest price paid for an Ocean Beach residence in 2018 was $1,185,000. The lowest price paid for an Ocean Beach home in 2018 was $385,000, down 4% from 2017’s low price of $400,000.

ROBBINS REST

No homes changed hands in Robbins Rest in 2018. Given the small size of the community, an average year sees only 1 home sale. The historic average sale price in Robbin’s Rest is $677,333.

SALTAIRE

Saltaire had an extremely weak year in 2018. Traditionally considered one of the most desirable communities on Fire Island, Saltaire usually sees 10 homes trade a year with some of the highest price points island wide. 2018 saw only 2 Saltaire homes trade hands, which represents an 82% year over year decline and an 80% decline from the 13-year average sale count. The average sale price also declined by 18% from $943,691 in 2017 to $775,250 in 2018.

The lowest price paid for a Saltaire home is 2018 was $645,000, which was 62% higher than the 2017 low price paid of $397,500, and 45% higher than the 13-year average low price. However, the high price paid was only $905,500, which is down 38% from 2017’s high price of $1,460,000 and down 52% from the 13-year average high price paid of $1,875,042.

SEAVIEW

After a significant sales slump in 2016 and 2017, Seaview sales came back strong in 2018. Sale count was up 38% from 8 sales in 2017 to 11 sales in 2018, which is 22% greater than the 13-year average sale count of 9 homes. The average sale price was up 29% from $838,581 in 2017 to $1,081,591 in 2018. While the year over year average price jump was considerable, 2018’s average sale price was just a modest 3% above the 13-year average of $1,045,489.

The lowest price paid in Seaview in 2018 was $715,000, up 8% from 2017’s low price of $660,000, and 26% higher than the historical average price of $566,731. The highest price paid in Seaview in 2018 was $2,372,500, which is 146% higher than the highest price paid in 2017 of $962,500 and 19% higher than the 13-year average Seaview sale price of $1,998,192.

SUMMER CLUB

Two homes traded in the Summer Club in 2018, as compared to none in 2017. Two home sales per year is typical for the Summer Club. 2018’s average Summer Club sale price was $1,123,750, which is 56% higher than the historical average sale price of $719,907. The lowest price paid in the Summer Club was $1,100,000, which is 89% higher than the 13-year average lowest sale price of $582,656. The highest price paid was $1,147,500, which is 20% higher than the 13-year average high price paid of $957,688.

WATER ISLAND

Only one home sold in Water Island in 2018, for a sale price of $1,500,000. 2017 also saw only one home sale in Water Island, at a price point of $1,200,000, representing a 25% year over year increase and a 26% premium over the 13-year average sales price of $1,194,042.

CONCLUSION

With both the average and median sale prices reaching record levels in 2018, the Fire Island real estate market continued the streak of strong performance that we’ve been experiencing since 2016. While the number of sales in 2018 did decline by 10% year over year, we are still experiencing annual transaction counts well above average. The 14% increase in the average sale price coupled with the modest 2% increase in the median sale price indicates that the market’s performance was driven largely by sales at the high end. This is not surprising, given that the high end of the market was completely dormant in 2017, so that pent up demand ended up transacting in 2018.

METHODOLOGY

Please note that all information herein is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Fire Island Real Estate is not responsible for any errors, omissions, or incorrect information. The information contained herein is sourced from public real estate transaction records. Sales data reporting has a lag of approximately 90 days. Due to this lag, there may be some outstanding sales that closed late in 2018 but have not yet been reported and are therefore not reflected in this report. All historic data refers to the period between 2006 and 2018.

Prepared By: Abigail Mago, Licensed Associate Broker

Overall the Fire Island real estate market performed well in 2016. While the number of sales fell slightly from 131 in 2015 to 129 in 2016, the average sale price increased 12% from $713,525 in 2015 to $801,789 in 2016. I began collecting market data in 2006, and since that time the average number of home sales that take place island wide each year is 93. With 129 home sales in 2016, that represents a 39% increase above an average year in the preceding 11-year data collection period. To put the average sale price in historical context, the 2016 island-wide average sale price of $801,789 is 3% above the 11-year average of $777,113. The highest price paid for a home on the island in 2016 was $3,600,000, a 15% increase above the highest price paid for a Fire Island home in 2015, and the highest price ever paid, since I began data collection in 2006.

To put the 2016 market data into perspective, it is helpful to look at sales figures relative to the entire period of data collection in addition to comparing to the previous year’s performance. The following graphs illustrate the average island wide sale price and the number of sales by year since 2016.

Town by Town Analysis

In addition to looking at the island’s overall market performance, it is useful to examine the data on a town by town basis.

OCEAN BEACH

The lion’s share of the island’s 129 sales took place in Ocean Beach, with 36 homes changing hands in 2016. That represents a 50% increase over Ocean Beach transaction volume in 2015. Since 2006, the village has seen 18 homes sell per year on average. 2016 saw double the number of Ocean Beach sales than a typical year. While the tendency may be to focus on price, sales transaction volume is an important indicator of market health. I think this brisk pace of sales and the resulting diminished inventory will lead to continued rising prices.

As one might expect in light of the incredible pace of sales, Ocean Beach sale prices were also up in 2016. The average Ocean Beach sale price in 2016 was $648,096 which is a 10% increase over the 2015 average and nearly equivalent to the 11-year average sale price. The highest price paid for a home in Ocean Beach in 2016 was $1,646,250, which is up 8% from 2015’s high price of $1,525,000.

SEAVIEW

Seaview is traditionally one of the hottest communities on Fire Island, but the 2016 sales data was far less impressive than in recent years. Only 10 Seaview homes traded hands in 2016, as compared to 17 in 2015 which represents a 41% decline in year over year sales transaction volume. However, when comparing to the past 11 year average of 9 sales per year, 10 home sales is not atypical.

The average sale price also declined by a significant margin, specifically 16%. The average 2016 sale price was $857,100, as compared to 2015’s average of $1,016835. The 2016 average sale price was 20% lower than the past 11-year average. The most expensive home sale in Seaview in 2016 was $1,540,000, which is less than half the price of the most expensive home sold in 2015, and 24% below the 11 year average high price of $2,026,500. It is rare to see a year where nothing in Seaview trades above the $2 million mark. More likely than not, this is not reflective of a true drop in value but rather is due to the fact that no high value homes were available for sale and did not happen to have traded in 2016.

OCEAN BAY PARK

This year was one for the books in Ocean Bay Park, with the average sale price increasing by a whopping 48% over 2015. Sales volume did decline a bit from 2015 which saw 17 sales as compared to 2016’s 14, but overall the OBP market continued its hot streak. A large chunk of the sales volume was driven by condemnation of oceanfront properties as a result of the dune restoration project. This definitely contributed to an upward skewing of the data since the proportion of oceanfront homes (which naturally command a large premium relative to inland properties) sold in 2016 was so much greater than in a typical year. Even setting the condemnation sales aside, the Ocean Bay Park market was strong. Excluding oceanfront sales, OBP's 2016 average sale price was $602,600, a 12.6% increase over 2015.

SUMMER CLUB

Only one home sold in the summer club in 2016 as compared to 5 homes in 2015. The average sale price of $950,000 is up significantly from 2015’s average sale price of $535,234, which is misleadingly low due to the fact that 3 out of the 5 sales that took place in 2015 were of vacant land.

CORNEILLE ESTATES

Two homes sold in Corneille Estates in 2016, as compared to only one sale in 2015. The average sale price was $742,500 which is 16% higher than the average sale price over the past 11 years of $641,464.

ROBBINS REST

One home sold in Robbins Rest in 2016, as compared to 3 sales in 2015. While volume of transactions may have been less than in a typical year, the sale price was $1,700,000 which was a 136% increase over the 2015 average sale price of $719,000, and more than double the 11-year average sale price of $812,875.

KISMET

Kismet saw a tremendous increase in sales transactions with 7 homes selling in 2016 as compared to only 3 homes in 2015. This represents a 133% year over year change. The average sale price also increased, going from $542,333 in 2015 to $636,429 in 2016, a 17% increase.

SALTAIRE

Saltaire also had an extraordinarily strong year, with 11 homes selling at an average price of $1,322,976. 2015’s average sale price was $897,438, which is 47% lower. Over the last 11 years, the average sale price was $966,830 which is 37% less than the 2016 average. While several of the homes that traded were above the $1 million mark, the average was driven up by a single $3,600,000 sale which is the highest price sale that has occurred on Fire Island since I began data collection in 2006.

FAIR HARBOR

While the volume of sales in Fair Harbor declined from 8 in 2015 to 6 in 2016, the average sale price jumped up 25% from $562,875 in 2015 to $701,917 in 2016. That represents a 7% premium over the 11-year average of $657,898. The highest price paid for a home in Fair Harbor in 2016 was $960,000 which was 7% higher than the 2015 high price of $900,000.

DUNEWOOD

Dunewood saw only one home sale in both 2016 and 2015, wheras a typical year sees 2 home sales. The home that sold in 2016 sold for $850,000, which is a 75% increase over the 2015 home sale price of $485,000 and a 5% increase over the 11-year average price of $805,846.

ATLANTIQUE

Atlantique was one of the few towns that saw declines both in terms of sales volume and price. Only 1 Atlantique home sold in 2016, for a price of $335,000. That represents a 47% decline from 2015’s average sale price of $630,833 and a 43% discount off of the 11-year average sale price of $590,104.

CHERRY GROVE

Cherry Grove sales volumes were down 29% in 2016, with the number of sales falling from 14 sales in 2015 to 10 sales in 2016. Even though year over year transaction volume declined, a typical year sees 8 sales, so 2016 transaction volume was still 22% above that of an average year. The average sale price was almost flat, going from $508,601 in 2015 to $507,205 in 2016, which is 3% lower than the 11-year average of $525,253.

FIRE ISLAND PINES

The Pines market saw solid gains in 2016 relative to 2015. In terms of sales transaction volume, 24 homes sold in 2016, as compared to 23 in 2015 and an 11-year average of 18 sales per year. The average sale price was up 7% from $898,707 in 2015 to $965,669 in 2016. The highest price paid for a home in the Pines in 2016 was $3,070,000 which was 62% higher than 2015’s high price of $1,900,000 and 35% higher than the 11-year average high price paid of $2,278,136.

WATER ISLAND

Only one home sold in Water Island in 2016, for a sale price of $1,555,000. In 2015, 3 Water Island homes were sold, for an average sale price of $983,333. The 11-year average sale price was $1,053,942.

DAVIS PARK

Sales transaction volume in Davis Park was up 300%, going from only one sale in 2015 to 4 sales in 2016. The average sale price rose by 30% from $400,000 in 2015 to $521,250 in 2016. The highest price paid for a home in Davis Park in 2016 was $640,000 which was a 60% increase over the previous year, but 9% lower than the average highest price paid in the preceding 10 years.

Conclusion

Because the Fire Island real estate market does not function like a traditional real estate market with a centralized multiple listing service, reliable market data is not readily available to the public. Going forward, I will be publishing annual market reports like this one in an effort to address that. Both buyers and sellers are served by being fully informed about the market in which they are considering transacting. Please do not hesitate to contact me at abigail@fireislandrealestate.com if I can provide any further information, or if I can be of help to you in the sale or purchase of your Fire Island home.

Methodology Note

Please note that all information herein is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed. The information is sourced from public real estate transaction records. Sales data reporting has a lag of approximately 90 days. Due to this lag, there may be some outstanding sales that closed late in 2016 but have not yet been reported as of the date of this posting and are therefore not reflected in this report.